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Masterchef Australia – Weekly Odds

Paul usual odds up for dissent and dissection. Personally I think Marion is going to win unless she has some sort of brain explosion and slips up, though Claire is good odds as she is in with a shot. (Raver’s view).

Here they are:

$2.80 : Marion

$4.50 : Jonathan

$7.00 : Adam

$8.00 : Claire

$11.00 : Alvin

$14.00: Any Other Contestant

$18.00 : Aaron

$26.00 : Callum, Joanne

Not much change really with the two eliminated contestants this week towards the bottom of the market anyway. Developing into a race in two at the moment in my opinion. Adam continues to quietly impress and has now overtaken Claire.

18 comments

1 sourkraut { 06.18.10 at 10:39 pm }

I’d still have Adam at $5 and UNFORTUNATELY Alvin at $14, even though I’d love to see an Adam/Alvin grand final with some yummy Asian dish as the cooking contest. failing that I would still like to see Joanne in the final as well. (yes mathematicians, I know it does not work so spare me)

2 duke nukem { 06.19.10 at 11:28 pm }

there’s a small possibility the producers would like to tap into “gay” market in which case they might let Alvin win and put out his cookbook. last year they chose the “family” and “mums” angle when they let julie win.

3 duke nukem { 06.20.10 at 12:13 am }

it’s clear that the purpose of the Facebook Master Chef Page, is to help the producers decide which contestant is the “most marketable” so they can sell cookbooks. haha it’s someone’s job to analyze the 10000’s of comments.

they ask questions like “Who is your favourite male cook left in the competition?”
and “How do you feel about last night’s result?”

http://www.facebook.com/?sk=messages&tid=1380933444606#!/MasterChefAustralia?ref=ts

4 CG { 06.20.10 at 7:35 am }

Duke Nuke, don’t go there. Picking a winner based on target demo to contrast last year’s winner… cookbooks. Prepare for a smack down.

5 Paul { 06.20.10 at 1:46 pm }

duke,
Forget about the cookbook angle.

Masterchef is worth over $100m. The revenue from the selling of the winners cookbooks would be 2m maximum. 60K copies at $30 each.

If each book makes a $5 profit (realistic considering how expensive cookbooks are to make and produce) then you are looking at the selling of books making 300K.

Its a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things.

Doubt if anyone at the top end even cared if they sold one book to be honest.

Time to end this conspiracy theory once and for all. It got way too much traction as it stood anyway.

But of course there are people whose minds are made up about this and no matter how many facts and figures you throw at them, they will never change their mind.

6 NT Kate { 06.20.10 at 3:47 pm }

Paul, as I’m sure the marketing types at MC are well aware, its not really just the revenue when it comes to the cookbook.

The cookbook revenue itself might be (relatively) small but it’s hardly insignificant given its effectively a low once off sunk cost (in fact given the way sales of the magazine have gone, I think it might turn out to be a very big earner).

But the crucial point is, the cookbook is not just or even mostly about the sales.

Who wins matters for the franchises’ credibility. The punters seeing the book in bookshops and being advertised that reminds people of the show, reinforces its credibility, and symbolically allows the punters to identify with the winner and thus encourages them to watch again next time, even if they don’t actually buy it.

So it only makes sense to ensure that your winner plays to different demographic groups each time – keeps more people happy and engaged.

I suspect it is a blokes turn to win this time – after all they carefully tried to keep the numbers of boys and girls even in the early stages, yet I bet there were far more female than male applicants (and I very much doubt that quality made up for quantity!).

I have to say though that I doubt the gay demographic is significant enough even in this particular sub-market market to be worth explicitly playing to this early in the hoped for life of the franchise (provided greed doesn’t blow it up way before then). And I suspect Alvin is just a little too golden gaytime and would be a turn off the straight blokes the show seems to be trying to bring in (with contestants like Jake, the vegetarian challenge, masterclasses on breadmaking etc).

No surprise that MC is lusting after the male 25-44 demographic- them’s the ones with the dollars to spend and to whom lots of the gadgets beign spruiked by the G’s are likely to appeal (and give their wives as presents – it’s the women like Julie who will think of the extra washing up they involve, and far simpler more practical way of achieving the same result)!

Of course the counterveiling consideration is that MC seems to be having most success with younger single women – and Marion so plays to that group!

So if we were looking for conspiracy theories, someone like Johno (if he can be packaged up a bit more as a nice guy) or Adam, who comes across as a very nice, natural person on camera to me at least, might play better (personally I like Aaron too, but I think he would be in with more of a chance if he ditched the beanie and tried to look a bit more normal…).

So please, Paul, be a little more creative in your thinking about marketing etc or you’ll never move up the chain in whatever firm you are working in…

7 CG { 06.20.10 at 4:10 pm }

Ah, and there it is. Just as predicted.

Excellent points, NT Kate.

Anyone who doesn’t think the producers and powers-that-be at Ch10/Fremantle/MC have a heavy hand in picking the winner and that this process doesn’t involve an assessment of marketing viability and segment valuation is naive beyond description.

8 Reality Raver { 06.20.10 at 4:45 pm }

NT Kate I couldn’t put it better myself. People buying the cookbook indicates they are engaging with the show. And it is not all about the dollars.
Australian Idol started to die once people did not start buying the winners single eg Natalie Gauci, and even with the talented Wes Carr in the following year the show was really starting to struggle.

NT Kate – must disagree on one point I think in my demographic I know a lot of blokes who are into cooking, more so then their partners. As they are the weekend cooks who want to do something creative. Whereas the female just do the day in day out cooking drudgery.

9 Paul { 06.20.10 at 5:00 pm }

NT Kate,
People aren’t drawn to the show because of the book.

They don’t get any more viewers from it and I dare say they don’t lose any more viewers from it either.

And as for the male 25-44 demographic. Its the female 25-44 demos that have all the buying power in so far as household goods are concerned. They are generally the chief shopper and more importantly enjoy spending money.

RR,
I get your point about people engaging with the show via the book but you have to ask yourself the question. Would the same number of people watch the show if there was no book ?
My gut feel is yes.

Look, if they sell a few books its fantastic but its not exactly a disaster for them if they don’t either. To suggest that they deliberatly manipulate a result to sell a few extra books whilst taking the risk of harming the integrity of the whole franchise (which would have an enourmous impact) is a bit fanciful.

I’m not saying that either of you subscribe to that either by the way its just that people are so convinced that this is how the winner is determined it almost becomes a religion for them !!!!!

In the end, it comes down to who is the better cook on the night.

10 CG { 06.20.10 at 5:40 pm }

“In the end, it comes down to who is the better cook on the night.”

If this is true, how the f*ck did someone like Kate get into the top 24? And how is someone like Callum in the final 8?

Good grief. Do you still believe in the Easter Bunny? The Tooth Fairy?

11 Paul { 06.20.10 at 6:09 pm }

Anything else that is entirely not relevant to the argument the adults are having that you wish to add, CG ?

12 NT Kate { 06.20.10 at 8:01 pm }

I’m not saying blokes who are hubbies aren’t into cooking, and I agree with you RR on the weekend cook/speciality thing (No doubt they are the target for those truffles!) – just noting that from the figures Paul has cited MC hasn’t really captured as much of that demographic as it would like as yet. And Paul, while women probably do control most of the food budget (men might do the odd splurging item, the quail or whatever dish for something special, but less of the day-to-day grind as RR points out), I’m pretty sure the research shows that in families men generally have more say over the bigger items budget (yes we are still that old fashioned).

13 Airwalk { 06.21.10 at 5:30 am }

Someone is way too obsessed with stalkers and conspiracy theories for my liking…
Here’s some reading folks
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/food-glorious-food-and-magazine-and-books-and–20100619-yo32.html
Hi CG :) …can’t disappoint the adults so gotta come say hi to ya…and be as predictable as smackdown P (think that went over his head though)
CG-why do some peoples comments read like their opinions and others feel like they are lecturing others…maybe he is only here as he has been flamed off other boards?

14 Airwalk { 06.21.10 at 5:54 am }

And CG…no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy?(maybe RR should have told you to put that news on the spoiler thread?)…next you will be telling me that Julie Goodwin isn’t the best amata cook in Australia?

15 CG { 06.21.10 at 7:08 am }

AW: “..maybe he is only here as he has been flamed off other boards”. Now THERE is a conspiracy theory I can believe in!

16 Paul { 06.21.10 at 8:37 am }

Thankyou Airwalk for that link.

Comprehensevley proves that the selling of cookbooks is but a dot in the whole Masterchef enterprise.

Can we get a new conspiracy theory please. This one is not even close to being true.

17 duke nukem { 06.21.10 at 3:04 pm }

when i’m out shopping it’s amazing how many times i see an mc cookbook in my vicinity or periphery. brilliant advertising.

18 Airwalk { 06.22.10 at 12:10 pm }

But CG now I am really confused…I thought the definition for conspiracy theory was ‘book deal’? :)