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Who Is Currently Hot To Win Masterchef Australia – Here Are The Odds

Regular reader and commenter Paul has kindly done up a list of odds of who are the current favourites and current duds on the show.

He is going to submit them each Friday, so it will be interesting to see how much movement occurs from now until the final’s week.

By the way I am not taking bets.

Here they are:

$4.50 : Marion

$6.00 : Claire

$9.00 : Jimmy, Skye, Adam

$11.00 : Peter

$13.00 : Aaron

$14.00 : Callum

$16.00 : Alvin, Matthew

$21.00 : Jonathan

$67.00 : Sharnee

$101 : Jake, Fiona, Joanne

$501 : Carrie

38 comments

1 Anthony { 05.21.10 at 1:02 pm }

I like Marion, but at this point, I’m unsure if I want her to win.
I think having 24 contestants this year, really slowed the competition down. We barely get to see enough of each of them and barely even some, to really get behind any of them.

2 CG { 05.21.10 at 2:10 pm }

What is this based on?

Surely there IS a market out there somewhere based on real odds based on $$ bet?

I am sticking by my original pick: Aaron!

Skye can poach fruit but hasn’t done much else well. Can’t believe she would be ranked as highly as you have her here.

3 Zoe { 05.21.10 at 2:10 pm }

Jimmy’s been tweeting, so you can knock him down the list. I think he might have deleted the account though.

4 Paul { 05.21.10 at 2:18 pm }

CG,
There is no official market as the ‘event’ has already been run, ie what we are watching is delayed.

Bookmakers would never take the risk of offering odds on an event that has already started.

5 sourkraut { 05.21.10 at 2:29 pm }

You’re joking, to coin a phrase.
Johnno has to be odds on fave based on his allowance for a second guess last night, plus a host of other unsubtle indicators.
Course that reeks of conspiracy and as we all know Ch10 would NEVER stoop to that

6 Pollywaffle { 05.21.10 at 3:10 pm }

Marion, Claire, no1, no 2,…..initials: MC, spooky!

7 rusty { 05.21.10 at 4:41 pm }

I’m surprised Jonno isn’t higher.

I don’t think Claire or Sky have a hope, unless there is something about them that they have “strategically” kept hidden til now, (like Phillip was alluding to). And I can’t imagine for one minute either of them being capable of that.

8 Wurstsemmel { 05.21.10 at 4:42 pm }

I’ve actually moved more towards Peter since Alvin’s gone off the boil.

9 CG { 05.21.10 at 5:07 pm }

Paul,
OK, so what are these odds based on – your assessment? votes taken by RR? other??

10 Sarah { 05.21.10 at 6:16 pm }

Given two contestants were reported (Spin control springs a leak, SMH, May 14th) to be seen shopping together near where MC is filmed, i think we can safely assume they are through to the final 6 or under so maybe they should move higher up the list.
It might be less than the last 6, but someone else can do the maths for me. MC stops filming in June according to their rules and there is roughly a 12 week lag between production and airing the programme.

11 A betting man { 05.21.10 at 6:29 pm }

Contestant odds are like share prices. Purely speculative. Warren Buffet got rich on ignoring the herd. Channel 10 ten put their money on Julie. Who’s wealthier?

12 CG { 05.21.10 at 6:37 pm }

Betting man: You are right. It really doesn’t matter who wins as long as it it credible. All ch10 needs to do is ensure the contest is interesting and that the winner is credible. And credible doesn’t mean the “best” as a limited amount of controversy and disagreement is good for ratings and sponsorship dollars. I would think the majority of $ comes from advertising and sponsorship, not the % cut of sales from the winner’s cookbooks. A credible win, with some interesting challenges, mild controversies, etc. along the way will ensure a profitable third season and help the planned spinoffs (baby MC, etc.). However, MC’s biggest issue right now isn’t the contestant pool (in which there are a number of questionable contestants) but the way they have f*cked with the format, including the inanity of the judges comments. I think what really happened is the success of season 1 went to the heads of the producers and the judges. They need to get back to where they were mid-season 1 otherwise they may wipe 2-3 years off the future of the series. The viewing public and the critics have all been on to these same issues. I know there is a lag in filming to telecast, so I am hoping they made some adjustments in the next few weeks. What are the odds of that??

13 Paul { 05.21.10 at 6:58 pm }

CG, odds are based on my opinion on what has been seen so far.

Appreciate your other thoughts but the facts are MC is rating higher at the same time this year than last year.

I’m prepared to ignore reports of who was seen where & when. Only last week I read that Philip is still in the house so I take what we read in the tabloids & on web sites with a grain of salt.

14 Feeding the masses { 05.21.10 at 7:38 pm }

What is popular is not necssarily good. Look at McDonalds.

15 sourkraut { 05.21.10 at 8:00 pm }

If not johnny boy then one of the already eliminated candidates who are asked back on some farrowed flimsy excuse.

Raver
you might like to check it out, I heard from a cousin of a friend of a person whose dog crossed the road who heard from a “reliable source” that the all time evil man Chris B is going to be asked back to bring a little controversy into the show and to allow 10 to give him a second chance!

16 spend a penny { 05.21.10 at 8:27 pm }

Paul what makes you so knowing about odds? Please explain (once you’ve updated your ladder with your special sources)

17 Paul { 05.21.10 at 8:35 pm }

spend a penny,
Already been explained (post 13). My opinion only.

Used to work for a bookmaker so know how to frame a market. Other than that no inside knowledge – just an opinion.

18 Jenny Draut { 05.21.10 at 9:40 pm }

for fuck sake, it is up to Ch 10 to select who the winner will be…
as long as NOT another frumpy looking & fat housewife…

what message do you wanna send to the already fat..worse obese Oz household….

19 sourkraut { 05.21.10 at 10:53 pm }

Paul
Re the ratings. Have you ever read the book Lies dammed lies and statistics? Are you really going to tell me the piddling sample of viewers is representative of the entire great nation of oz??????

20 KC { 05.22.10 at 12:16 am }

MARION!!!!! Hope she wins πŸ˜€ And then closely followed by Aaron πŸ˜€

21 Anon { 05.22.10 at 3:39 am }

The newspaper mentioned above in this is correct, at least about one of them.

22 kate (NTK!) { 05.22.10 at 8:33 am }

So perhaps rather than odds, which we have no way of testing in a market, and merely reflect one persons opinion, it might be better to try guessing who the top six will be/should be (maybe updated weekly via a poll)?

My take on the will be is Jonathon, Claire, Marian, Adam, Alvin.

I’d like Jimmy to be up there, but doubt if he will survive the G’s Asian food ignorance (and there is that tantalising spoiler, although breaks in filming could explain that).

So I’d guess Callum also makes it that far.

23 sourkraut { 05.22.10 at 12:29 pm }

NTK
I wouldn’t mind seeing Jimmy there either. I’ve gone off Alvin a little bit, maybe if he cooked some nice Asian dish and the idiots on the camera crew actually showed him cooking it (so long as its NOT century egg, and yes i have tried the real thing last month in China and genuinely did not like it, and it was blind tasting as i did not know wot was on the plate and out of good manners i ate it but that was the only thing i did not like)

24 sourkraut { 05.22.10 at 12:33 pm }

No Idea mag at Coles today had an article on MC2 and spoke about spearmintgate. i was too tightarsed to buy the rag and the que too short (not far) to read it all. BUT my take is they will bring her back as the missing farrow gate candidate for the Sem I finals at least

25 Market values { 05.22.10 at 2:11 pm }

The GGs have no influence on the outcome, they are just the medium to ‘make it happen’ for the producers. Again it probably won’t be the most competent cook but someone that appeals to a wider demographic. The downtrodden of the GFC were able to identify with last year’s winner. This time it will be someone that middle Australia would feel comfortable having them in their kitchen or to invite as a dinner guest.

26 Paul { 05.22.10 at 2:38 pm }

Okay market values, I’ll humour you.
Going on your reasoning who won’t win then ?

Because based on what you have said then all the remaining contestants can win.

Thats the problem with conspiracy theorists, They’re all geniuses AFTER the event.

sourkraut – why don’t you have a go as well ?

Reasonings would be good (and funny to read as well).

27 Nonnymouse { 05.22.10 at 2:44 pm }

filming is now six weeks ahead of the tv schedule not twelve. it takes up to two weeks real time to make one week of tv time.
most of you here know shit-all about tv production and your grand statements about what is and isnt happening are embarrassing. market values i’m talking to you.

28 Market values { 05.22.10 at 2:50 pm }

Claire, Adam, Callum, Alvin, Matthew, Jonathan, Sharnee, Jake, Fiona, Joanne, Carrie.

Someone not too annoying, weird, exotic, posh, young or immature.

29 Paul { 05.22.10 at 3:01 pm }

So that leaves Marion, Jimmy, Skye, Aaron & Peter.

Wow-really going out on a limb there considering most would think them the best cooks remaining.

30 Market values { 05.22.10 at 3:16 pm }

Claire, Adam and Jonathan aren’t bad cooks.

31 sourkraut { 05.22.10 at 6:54 pm }

Paul
I’d be the wrong demographic. Of Kraut heritage but OZ born (and bloody proud of both bits!) , over 60,demonstrably grumpy personality, love to eat/attempt to cook Asian food. What chance would i have ? Besides I’ve resisted the temptation to become a media whore for this long, why would I start now?
If you are referring to the “odds” I’ve already said who i think will win. I would LIKE to see Jimmy or the other Asian (not Alvin, but he would still be ok though), but the one whose name i can never remember.
VERY difficult for me to get emotionally involved positively or negatively with any of them this series, they all seem pretty bland, and as I’ve blathered on before, none of them have really shown any outstanding ability.

32 anon { 05.22.10 at 8:59 pm }

“Someone not too annoying, weird, exotic, posh, young or immature.”

That gets rid of Skye and Aaron – they both have annoying hair issues
That leaves Marion, Jimmy and Peter. Dull

Jonathan to win!

“Claire, Adam and Jonathan aren’t bad cooks.”

Someone remind me what Claire has cooked that was notable.

33 Anon { 05.23.10 at 6:33 am }

Given the following info is available on company websites, has been mentioned in the media and discussed in forums i am assuming it is no longer a spoiler.

@Nonnymouse
Just to throw the proverbal spanner in…
The P&O challenge which will be aired June 2nd was filmed March 10 in 8 hours (as advertised/reported on P&O website and Pacific Jewel P&O website).
I did however, notice you put the word ‘now’ in though – does this mean it used to be 12 weeks between filming, production and finally airing on TV but it isn’t anymore? Which naturally leads me to ask how would you know – do you work/know someone who works for MC?

34 nonnymouse { 05.23.10 at 11:01 am }

up to two weeks real time to film one week of tv. do the maths. the show is still filming now but has been on tv for weeks. once the show starts on tv it catches up on air at almost twice the speed of filming. yes the gap gets smaller.

35 Ioanna { 06.04.10 at 6:10 pm }

i really want to know who is going to win!!

36 Adam { 07.22.10 at 9:56 pm }

I won xx Adam

37 Anonymous { 07.25.10 at 7:59 pm }

prudence go adam. I think adam should win. callum is only 19. thats why i am going for adam goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo adam!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

38 prue { 07.25.10 at 8:02 pm }

gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo adam!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!